Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-01 95741.951134 100921.100416 106094.246373 111645.623278 117430.659300 123277.923779 129631.206004
2025-06-08 86574.074380 94467.282074 102568.158711 111492.872300 121038.304751 130930.663079 141946.544231
2025-06-15 81282.238036 91138.651034 101471.339193 113088.763603 125764.073651 139151.223376 154336.214383
2025-06-22 76778.377814 88088.010953 100157.366493 113959.217891 129267.473978 145688.135311 164595.175067
2025-06-29 72620.371480 85030.149763 98483.529596 114098.078617 131666.269216 150765.202691 173040.601254
2025-07-06 69024.181286 82325.701788 96952.376570 114156.497148 133761.710192 155329.902439 180772.138491
2025-07-13 67032.578395 81276.217305 97137.875059 116015.360835 137769.696582 161951.665661 190759.507809
2025-07-20 65122.919575 80184.886367 97156.449190 117576.433946 141352.702142 168035.108476 200109.226352
2025-07-27 63037.710502 78767.148480 96690.768096 118480.516568 144100.249983 173109.814354 208276.394868
2025-08-03 60681.010119 76913.990421 95613.650728 118574.848934 145825.877402 176947.674379 214978.799202
2025-08-10 58687.066579 75402.847558 94857.931101 118972.432660 147844.734988 181082.730563 222004.523189
2025-08-17 56721.407299 73842.315538 93968.263114 119141.183522 149535.618618 184794.066884 228513.246995
2025-08-24 55442.226081 73094.704437 94044.352134 120474.836466 152644.078590 190232.071808 237153.695415
2025-08-31 53415.844775 71352.795243 92851.272592 120216.800525 153798.971093 193329.229174 243014.456681
2025-09-07 52488.502915 70943.536661 93259.205542 121891.237435 157284.885678 199220.995608 252249.388285
2025-09-14 51255.146511 70097.866612 93084.418502 122811.243187 159825.258676 203966.106952 260115.935921
2025-09-21 49726.318985 68820.835217 92322.607646 122957.649376 161379.601509 207496.015603 266507.195230
2025-09-28 48243.465459 67552.662262 91526.482427 123019.463247 162796.296866 210838.310779 272666.217147
2025-10-05 47714.616578 67501.002116 92255.508555 124994.481872 166599.176034 217122.366593 282466.426038
2025-10-12 47076.694252 67279.400729 92746.386466 126652.861963 170001.630829 222923.785798 291703.250431
2025-10-19 46167.991014 66667.726047 92708.254370 127613.190303 172510.879709 227618.802661 299588.856825
2025-10-26 44935.153175 65585.557269 92025.872825 127713.386212 173904.771034 230912.114954 305733.533171
2025-11-02 43893.402805 64729.188715 91610.656062 128135.676157 175693.593637 234694.820738 312499.877001